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Japan Next Soverign Debt Crisis

posted by Tig 720 days ago in JPY, Fundamental, Trade

“Japan’s inability to finance its debt sales domestically is approaching.” “If bond yields spike, Japanese financial institutions will take a heavy blow, shaking the nation’s financial system.” Kan, Japan's new leader, knows they need to keep int

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The yuan: Why won't China let it float?

posted by Tig 936 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Trade made popular 936 days ago

Nice summary on why China can get away with an undervalued pegged currency. They have the US hostage.

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Dollar faces long journey downward

posted by Tig 956 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Trade made popular 956 days ago

An awesome take on the subject. Especially the "risk aversion" that drove the dollar higher during the crises. Hint: it wasn't actually risk aversion! This might be the best article explaining what is really going on with the dollar. Crystal c

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Global rebalancing to weaken dollar, quietly

posted by Tig 972 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Trade

I tend to be a dollar bull, but this made me think twice. Net: Obama needs a weak dollar for the US to climb out of it's budget and trade deficits.

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U.S. economy has bottomed: George Soros

posted by Tig 1018 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Employment made popular 1018 days ago

"I think it (the stimulus) has made a difference, the economy has actually bottomed and I think we are facing a positive quarter, and I think that is largely due to the stimulus," he said in an interview with Reuters Television in New York.

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Soros predicts "stop-go" economy and higher rates

posted by Tig 1061 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Inflation made popular 1061 days ago

Rising U.S. Treasury yields have driven mortgage rates back up, threatening a recovery in the housing market and a refinancing boom that has helped preserve the still-fragile health of recession-weary households and the banks that lend to them.

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Fed holds policy steady, less worried on deflation

posted by Tig 1067 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Inflation

Is no news really no news? Senior currency strategist Mike Woolfolk of The Bank of New York-Mellon said, "It came out exactly as we expected it to. It was certainly more subtle than many had hoped for but nonetheless delivered a clear message tha

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Soros says worst of global crisis is behind us

posted by Tig 1070 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Inflation made popular 1070 days ago

George continues to say he supports the anti-crisis measures undertaken by the U.S. administration. And he favors ADDITIONAL governent spending. (Most folks are starting to be scared by that). If George is right (as usual) and spending turns out

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U.S. consumer prices confirm inflation in check

posted by Tig 1074 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Inflation made popular 1074 days ago

Biggest CPI drop in 60 years. With negative inflationary pressure, there's no need to raise interest rates. Today, that notion (interest rates won't increase) weakened the dollar. My prediction: rebound tomorrow, as we realize this disinflationa

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U.S. likely to lose AAA rating: Prechter

posted by Tig 1075 days ago in USD, Technical

Technical analyst Robert Prechter (known for predicting the 1987 stock market crash) said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010. And that the economy "is obviously heading toward a depression," despite the

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Investors back from the brink, but not far

posted by Tig 1076 days ago in USD, Fundamental made popular 1076 days ago

Summary: Treasury yields up = fewer mortgages b/c higher interest rates = stalled recovery. But higher interest rates = stronger dollar. I predict interest rates will stay up (but not going too much higher), to keep inflation down and prevent C

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U.S. bailout panel: more bank stress tests needed

posted by Tig 1083 days ago in USD, Fundamental, Employment made popular 1083 days ago

It noted the "more adverse scenario" assumption for the U.S. unemployment rate in the tests for the has nearly been met so far in 2009. The May unemployment rate of 9.4 percent pushed the average for the year to 8.5 percent, not far from the 8.9

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